RUNNING THE FORECASTING TOOL IN RISK SIMULATOR

In general, to create forecasts, several quick steps are required:

• Start Excel and enter in or open existing historical data.
• Select the data and click on Risk Simulator | Forecasting.
• Select the relevant sections (Box–Jenkins ARIMA, Time-series Analysis, Multivariate Regression, Stochastic Forecasting, Nonlinear Extrapolation, etc.) and enter the relevant inputs.

Figure 11.2 illustrates the Forecasting tool and the various methodologies available in Risk Simulator.

 Figure 11.2: Risk Simulator’s Forecasting Methods

The following provides a quick review of each methodology and several quick getting started examples in using the software. The example data files used to create these examples are included in the Risk Simulator software and can be accessed through the following menu: Risk Simulator | Example Models.