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CQRM CERTIFICATE
Training
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CONSULTING
SOFTWARE
Risk Simulator
Real Options SLS
ROV PROJECT ECONOMICS ANALYSIS TOOL (PEAT)
Modeling Toolkit
Employee Stock Options Valuation
ROV BizStats
ROV Quantitative Data Miner
ROV Modeler, Optimizer, Valuator
ROV Runtime for Risk Simulator
ROV Large Scale Risk Optimizer
ROV Software Development Kit (SDK-OEM) Source codes
ROV Compiler
ROV Extractor and Evaluator
ROV Dashboard
ROV Web Models
ROV VISUAL MODELER
Healthcare Analytics
BOOKS
Real Options Analysis (3rd Edition)
Modeling Risk (3rd Edition)
Advanced Analytical Models (2nd Edition)
Credit Engineering for Bankers
The Banker’s Handbook on Credit Risk
Certified Quantitative Risk Management (CQRM): Readings
Certified Quantitative Risk Management (CQRM): Case Studies
Risk Simulator Guide
Project Economics Analysis Tool (PEAT)
Real Options SLS Guide
Modeling Risk (2nd Edition)
Real Options Analysis (2nd Edition)
Advanced Analytical Models
Valuing Employee Stock Options
Modeling Risk
Applied Risk Analysis
Real Options Analysis Course
Real Options Analysis (1st Edition)
What Is So Real About Real Options, and Why Are They Optional?
Faith Journey
Managing Your Finances God’s Way
Risk Simulator (Simulador de Riesgo)
Modelación de Riesgos (Tercera Edición)
Modelacion de Riesgos (Tercera Edicion, VOL. 2)
Downloads
Software Downloads
Getting Started and Modelling Videos
Product Brochures
Sample Models
Whitepapers and Case Studies
KNOWLEDGE CENTER
PURCHASE
Contact Us
DISTRIBUTIONAL MOMENTS
Search
DETAILED LIST OF ALL TOPICS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
MEASURING THE CENTER OF THE DISTRIBUTION–THE FIRST MOMENT
MEASURING THE SPREAD OF THE DISTRIBUTION–THE SECOND MOMENT
MEASURING THE SKEW OF THE DISTRIBUTION–THE THIRD MOMENT
MEASURING THE CATASTROPHIC TAIL EVENTS IN A DISTRIBUTION–THE FOURTH MOMENT
THE BASICS OF INTERPRETING PDF, CDF (S-CURVE), ICDF CHARTS
BAYES’ THEOREM
HAWAIIAN CARD TRICK
MONTY HALL GAME SHOW
COVID-19 TESTING EFFICACY AND FALSE POSITIVES
DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
RELATIONSHIPS AMONG PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
GETTING STARTED WITH ROV BIZSTATS
QUANTITATIVE STATISTICAL METHODS AND DATA SCIENCE
TWO-SAMPLE EQUAL VARIANCE T-TEST
TWO-SAMPLE UNEQUAL VARIANCE T-TEST
TWO-SAMPLE T-TEST WITH DEPENDENT MEANS
F-TEST OF VARIANCES FROM INDEPENDENT SAMPLES
Z-TEST OF PROPORTIONS
Z-TEST OF PROPORTIONS AND MEANS
SINGLE ANOVA WITH MULTIPLE TREATMENTS
ANOVA WITH RANDOMIZED BLOCK TEST
TWO-WAY ANOVA
ANCOVA, MANOVA, AND TWO-WAY MANOVA
CHI-SQUARE TESTS
LINEAR AND NONLINEAR CORRELATIONS
Relationships Among Variables: Auto Correlation, Time Correlation, and Factor-Related Methods
NORMALITY TESTS AND DISTRIBUTIONAL FITTING
Kolmogorov–Smirnov Test
Chi-Square Test
Akaike Information Criterion, Anderson–Darling, Kuiper’s Statistic, and Schwarz/Bayes Criterion
Box–Cox Transformation
NONPARAMETRIC TESTS
Runs Test for Randomness
Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test and Mann–Whitney Test
Lilliefors, Q-Q Chart, D’Agostino–Pearson, and Shapiro–Wilk–Royston Tests
Kruskal–Wallis, Mood’s Multivariate Medians, and Cochran’s Q Tests
Friedman’s Test
INTER-RATER RELIABILITY, INTRA-RATER RELIABILITY, CONSISTENCY, CREDIBILITY, DIVERSITY, INTERNAL VALIDITY, EXTERNAL VALIDITY, AND PREDICTABILITY
Inter-Rater Reliability with Pairwise Cohen’s Kappa
Internal Consistency and Reliability with Cronbach’s Alpha for Binary Data
Internal Consistency and Reliability with Guttman’s Lambda
Inter-Rater Reliability Using Inter-Class Correlation (ICC) Measures
Kendall’s W Measure of Concordance Inter-Rater Reliability Test (With or Without Ties)
Data Diversity with Shannon, Brillouin, and Simpson Diversity and Homogeneity Test
Grubbs Test for Outliers and Mahalanobis Distance
Linear and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis
Internal Validity
External Validity
Predictability and Accuracy: Akaike, Bayes, Hannan–Quinn, Diebold–Mariano, Pesaran–Timmermann
Precision and Error Control
LINEAR AND NONLINEAR MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION
TESTS FOR MULTICOLLINEARITY AND HETEROSKEDASTICITY
BEYOND MULTIPLE REGRESSION: STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING (SEM) WITH PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES (PLS) ON PATH ESTIMATION
BEYOND MULTIPLE REGRESSION: ENDOGENEITY AND SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS METHODS AND TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARES
BEYOND MULTIPLE REGRESSION: GRANGER CAUSALITY AND ENGLE–GRANGER METHODS
BEYOND MULTIPLE REGRESSION: POISSON REGRESSION, DEMING REGRESSION, ORDINAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION, RIDGE REGRESSION, AND WEIGHTED REGRESSION
Multiple Poisson Regression (Population and Frequency)
Multiple Regression (Deming Regression with Known Variance)
Multiple Regression (Ordinal Logistic Regression)
Multiple Ridge Regression (Low Variance, High Bias, High VIF)
Multiple Weighted Regression (Fixing Heteroskedasticity)
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MACHINE LEARNING METHODS
AI MACHINE LEARNING: BAGGING LINEAR FIT BOOTSTRAP (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: BAGGING NONLINEAR FIT BOOTSTRAP (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES CART (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: CLASSIFICATION WITH GAUSSIAN MIX & K-MEANS SEGMENTATION (UNSUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: CLASSIFICATION WITH K-NEAREST NEIGHBORS (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: CLASSIFICATION WITH PHYLOGENETIC TREES & HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERING (UNSUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: CLASSIFICATION WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: CUSTOM FIT MODEL (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: DIMENSION REDUCTION PCA (UNSUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: DIMENSION REDUCTION FACTOR ANALYSIS (UNSUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: ENSEMBLE COMMON FIT (NONLINEAR) (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: ENSEMBLE COMPLEX FIT (NONLINEAR) (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: ENSEMBLE TIME-SERIES (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: LINEAR FIT MODEL (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: MULTIVARIATE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS (LINEAR) (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: MULTIVARIATE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS (QUADRATIC) (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: NEURAL NETWORK (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: LOGISTIC BINARY CLASSIFICATION (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: NORMIT PROBIT BINARY CLASSIFICATION (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: RANDOM FOREST (SUPERVISED)
AI MACHINE LEARNING: SEGMENTATION CLUSTERING (UNSUPERVISED)
ROV BIZSTATS QUICK REFERENCE GUIDE: ANALYTICS SUMMARY
NONPARAMETRIC HYPOTHESIS TESTS
PARAMETRIC HYPOTHESIS TESTS
CONTINUED LIST OF ANALYTICAL METHODS
FORECASTING AND PREDICTIVE MODELING
DIFFERENT TYPES OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
RUNNING THE FORECASTING TOOL IN RISK SIMULATOR
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION
STEPWISE REGRESSION
STOCHASTIC FORECASTING
NONLINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
BOX–JENKINS ARIMA ADVANCED TIME-SERIES FORECASTS
AUTO ARIMA (BOX–JENKINS ARIMA TIME-SERIES) FORECASTS
BASIC ECONOMETRICS
J-CURVE AND S-CURVE FORECASTS
GARCH VOLATILITY FORECASTS
MARKOV CHAINS
GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS & MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD MODELS ON LOGIT, PROBIT, AND TOBIT
SPLINE (CUBIC SPLINE INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION)
NEURAL NETWORK AND COMBINATORIAL FUZZY LOGIC FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES
TRENDLINE FORECASTS
TIME-SERIES FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
NO TREND AND NO SEASONALITY
WITH TREND BUT NO SEASONALITY
NO TREND BUT WITH SEASONALITY
WITH SEASONALITY AND WITH TREND
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
THE PITFALLS OF FORECASTING: OUTLIERS, NONLINEARITY, MULTICOLLINEARITY, HETEROSKEDASTICITY, AUTOCORRELATION, AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS
OTHER TECHNICAL ISSUES IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS
FUNCTIONAL FORMS OF BIVARIATE REGRESSION
ADVANCED REGRESSION METHODS, REGRESSION-RELATED METHODS, AND THEIR VARIATIONS
REGRESSION AND FORECASTING DIAGNOSTIC TOOL
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TOOL
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION BASICS
WHAT IS MONTE CARLO SIMULATION?
WHY ARE SIMULATIONS IMPORTANT?
COMPARING SIMULATION WITH TRADITIONAL ANALYSES
USING RISK SIMULATOR AND EXCEL TO PERFORM SIMULATIONS
RISK SIMULATOR: RUNNING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
GETTING STARTED WITH RISK SIMULATOR
RUNNING A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
USING FORECAST CHARTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
CORRELATIONS AND PRECISION CONTROL
PRECISION AND ERROR CONTROL
TROUBLESHOOTING AND RISK SIMULATOR TIPS
HELPFUL TIPS AND TECHNIQUES IN RISK SIMULATOR
RISK SIMULATOR: ADVANCED DATA ANALYTICS
TORNADO AND SENSITIVITY TOOLS IN SIMULATION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
DISTRIBUTIONAL FITTING: SINGLE VARIABLE AND MULTIPLE VARIABLES
FITTING MULTIPLE VARIABLES
DISTRIBUTIONAL FITTING ALGORITHMS
PERCENTILE DISTRIBUTIONAL FITTING TOOL
BOOTSTRAP SIMULATION
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
DATA EXTRACTION, SAVING SIMULATION RESULTS, AND GENERATING REPORTS
DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS TOOL
SCENARIO ANALYSIS TOOL
SEGMENTATION CLUSTERING TOOL
STRUCTURAL BREAK ANALYSIS
DETRENDING AND DESEASONALIZING
PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS
RISK SIMULATOR: OPTIMIZATION (THE SEARCH FOR THE OPTIMAL DECISION)
WHAT IS AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL?
THE TRAVELING FINANCIAL PLANNER
THE LINGO OF OPTIMIZATION
OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS
CONTINUOUS OPTIMIZATION
DISCRETE INTEGER OPTIMIZATION
EFFICIENT FRONTIER AND ADVANCED OPTIMIZATION SETTINGS
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION
OPTIMIZATION APPLICATION EXAMPLE: MILITARY PORTFOLIO AND EFFICIENT FRONTIER
OPTIMIZATION APPLICATION EXAMPLE: OPTIMAL PRICING WITH ELASTICITY
COMPUTING ANNUALIZED RETURNS AND RISK FOR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION
EXERCISE: OPTIMIZATION
PROJECT ECONOMICS EVALUATION AND PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH PEAT
NET PRESENT VALUE
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
PROFITABILITY INDEX
PAYBACK PERIOD
DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD
EXAMPLE COMPUTATIONS
PEAT SOFTWARE
Navigating Inside the PEAT Software
PROJECT ECONOMICS USING PEAT
Project | Discounted Cash Flow
Project | Cash Flow Ratios
Project | Economic Results
Project | Information and Details
Project | Portfolio Analysis
APPLIED ANALYTICS IN PEAT
Applied Analytics | Static Tornado
Applied Analytics | Scenario Analysis
RISK SIMULATION IN PEAT
Risk Simulation | Set Input Assumptions
Risk Simulation | Simulation Results
Risk Simulation | Overlay Results
Risk Simulation | Analysis of Alternatives
Risk Simulation | Dynamic Sensitivity
STRATEGIC REAL OPTIONS
FORECAST PREDICTION IN PEAT
PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION & PROJECT SELECTION IN PEAT
Portfolio Optimization | Optimization Settings
Portfolio Optimization | Optimization Results
Portfolio Optimization | Advanced Custom Optimization
PEAT DASHBOARD, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, AND OPTIONS
Discount Rates
Custom Calculations
Dashboard
Knowledge Center
FORMULAE SUMMARY
DYNAMIC RISK-BASED PROJECT MANAGEMENT WITH PEAT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT WITH PEAT
Traditional Schedule Management
Probabilistic Schedule Management
HANDS-ON PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN PEAT
Simple Sequential Project Tasks
Sensitivity Analysis and Simulating a Project with Sequential Tasks
Projects with Complex Tasks
Critical Path Models (CPM) in Projects with Complex Tasks
Comparing and Overlaying Simulated Results
SCHEDULE & COST RISK COMPUTATIONS
Schedule Risk
Cost Risk
Using PEAT to Model Cost and Schedule Risk
SCHEDULE SIMULATION
Creating and Simulating
Monte Carlo Simulation on Schedule Risk
CPM & GANTT ANALYSIS
Manually Solving a Critical Path Model
Comparing with PEAT Calculations & GANTT Charts
OVERRUN BUFFERS & LINKED TASKS WITH PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
Basic Model, Cost Overruns, Probability of Success for Each Task
PRICING MODELS USING COST, RISK, & OPPORTUNITY
Work Breakout Structure Cost Models
PEAT Cost Pricing Module
BUILDING A NEW HOUSE
Steps in Building a New Home
Complex Schedule and Cost Model
ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT WITH PEAT
ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT
TRADITIONAL APPROACHES
RISK REGISTERS AND BASIC ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT
CASE EXAMPLE: HOSPITAL RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK MATRIXES
BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANNING
COMPREHENSIVE ERM WITH QUANTITATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
HANDS-ON PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN PEAT
Risk Global Settings (Risk Classifications)
Risk Groups (Risk Segmentation and Risk Taxonomy)
Risk Mapping (Risk Assignments)
Risk Register
Risk Dashboard
Risk Diagrams
Risk Controls
Risk Forecast
Risk Mitigation
Risk Knowledge
Risk Events
Risk Engagement
Bridging the Gap Between Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Management
Applied Analytics: Static Tornado Analysis
Applied Analytics: Scenario Analysis
Risk Simulations
COMPLIANCE WITH GLOBAL STANDARDS: BASEL, COSO, ISO, NIST, AND SARBOX
COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS ORGANIZATION ISO 31000:2009
COMPLIANCE WITH BASEL III AND BASEL IV FRAMEWORK
COMPLIANCE WITH COSO INTEGRATED RISK FRAMEWORK
DYNAMIC EVALUATION OF ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT AT ELETROBRAS FURNAS IN BRAZIL
Uncertainty, Risk, and Vulnerability
Proposed Mechanism for Dynamic Risk Indicators
Accounting for Corporate Risk
Dynamic Assessment of Vulnerability: An Illustration
Dynamic Evaluation of the Impact
Dynamic Evaluation of Probability
Dynamic Evaluation of the Measurement of KRI (Risk)
BANKING OPERATIONAL AND ENTERPRISE RISK
OPERATIONAL RISK AT BANKS
CREDIT, MARKET, OPERATIONAL, AND LIQUIDITY RISK WITH CMOL SOFTWARE
CMOL Software on Modeling Banking Risk
Credit Economic and Regulatory Capital
Basel Credit Risk Models and Economic Capital
Retail Loans: Residential Mortgage Exposures
Retail Loans: Qualifying Revolving Retail Exposures
Retail Loans: Other Retail Exposures
Corporate Loans: Corporate, Sovereign, Bank, and Corporate Loans
Market Risk
Central Bank Market Risk
Asset Liability Management
ALM: Net Interest Margin and Economic Value of Equity
Scenario Analysis and Stress Testing
Credit and Market Risk Analytical Models
Operational Risk
ANALYTICAL MODELS
Probability of Default
Structural Models of Probability of Default
Illustrative Example: Structural Probability of Default Models on Public Firms
Illustrative Example: Structural Probability of Default Models on Private Firms
Empirical Models of Probability of Default
Illustrative Example: Applying Empirical Models of Probability of Default
Loss Given Default and Expected Losses
Economic Capital and Value at Risk
Illustrative Example: Structural VaR Models
Illustrative Example: VaR Models using Monte Carlo Risk Simulation
Efficient Portfolio Allocation and Economic Capital VaR
Illustrative Example: Portfolio Optimization and the Effects on Portfolio VaR
Illustrative Example: Risk Analysis – Interest Rate Risk
Illustrative Example: Risk Hedging – Delta-Gamma Hedging
Illustrative Example: Risk Hedging – Delta Hedging
Illustrative Example: Risk Hedging – Effects of Fixed versus Floating Rates (Swaps)
Illustrative Example: Risk Hedging – Foreign Exchange Cash Flow Model
Illustrative Example: Risk Hedging – Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Illustrative Example: Volatility – Implied Volatility
Illustrative Example: Volatility – Volatility Computations
Illustrative Example: Yield Curve – CIR Model
Illustrative Example: Yield Curve – Curve Interpolation BIM Model
Illustrative Example: Yield Curve – Curve Spline Interpolation and Extrapolation Model
Illustrative Example: Yield Curve – Forward Rates from Spot Rates
Illustrative Example: Yield Curve – Vasicek Model
Illustrative Example: Stochastic Forecasting of Interest Rates and Stock Prices
Stochastic Process Forecasting
PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT AND VALUE AT RISK
Probability of Default – Bond Yields and Spreads (Market Comparable Approach)
Probability of Default – Empirical Model
Probability of Default – External Options Model (Public Company)
Probability of Default – Merton Internal Options Model (Private Company)
Probability of Default – Merton Market Options Model (Industry Comparable)
Value at Risk – Optimized and Simulated Portfolio VaR
Value at Risk – Options Delta Portfolio VaR
Value at Risk – Portfolio Operational and Credit Risk VaR Capital Adequacy
Value at Risk – Right-Tail Capital Requirements
Value at Risk – Static Covariance Method
Volatility – Implied Volatility
Volatility – Volatility Computations
COMPLIANCE WITH GLOBAL STANDARDS: BASEL, COSO, ISO, NIST, AND SARBOX
COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS ORGANIZATION ISO 31000:2009
COMPLIANCE WITH BASEL III/IV/IV AND BASEL IV FRAMEWORK
COMPLIANCE WITH COSO INTEGRATED RISK FRAMEWORK
REAL OPTIONS SLS APPLICATIONS
EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS : SIMPLE AMERICAN CALL OPTION
EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS : SIMPLE BERMUDAN CALL OPTION WITH VESTING
EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS : SIMPLE EUROPEAN CALL OPTION
EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS : SUBOPTIMAL EXERCISE
EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS : VESTING, BLACKOUT, SUBOPTIMAL, FORFEITURE
EXOTIC OPTIONS : AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN LOWER BARRIER OPTIONS
Exotic Options – American and European Upper Barrier Option
Exotic Options – American and European Double Barrier Options and Exotic Barriers
Exotic Options – Basic American, European, and Bermudan Call Options
Exotic Options – Basic American, European, and Bermudan Put Options
Real Options – American, European, Bermudan, and Customized Abandonment Option
Real Options – American, European, Bermudan, and Customized Contraction Option
Real Options – American, European, Bermudan, and Customized Expansion Option
Real Options – Contraction, Expansion, and Abandonment Option
Real Options – Dual-Asset Rainbow Option Using Pentanomial Lattices
Real Options – Exotic Chooser Options
Real Options – Exotic Complex Floating American and European Chooser
Real Options – Jump-Diffusion Option Using Quadranomial Lattices
Real Options – Mean-Reverting Calls and Puts Using Trinomial Lattices
Real Options – Multiple Assets Competing Options
Real Options – Path-Dependent, Path-Independent, Mutually Exclusive, Nonmutually Exclusive, and Complex Combinatorial Nested Options
Real Options – Sequential Compound Options
Real Options – Simultaneous Compound Options
Real Options – Simple Calls and Puts Using Trinomial Lattices
REAL OPTIONS STRATEGIC CASE STUDIES – FRAMING THE OPTIONS
Real Options Strategic Cases – High-Tech Manufacturing: Build or Buy Decision with Real Options
Real Options Strategic Cases – Oil and Gas: Farmouts, Options to Defer, and Value of Information
Real Options Strategic Cases – Pharmaceutical Development: Value of Perfect Information and Optimal Trigger Values
Real Options Strategic Cases – Option to Switch Inputs
Valuation – Convertible Warrants with a Vesting Period and Put Protection
TECHNICAL NOTES
TECHNICAL NOTE 1: THE BASICS OF INTERPRETING PDF, CDF, AND ICDF
TECHNICAL NOTE 2: CONVOLUTION AND COPULAS—THEORY VERSUS PRACTICE
TECHNICAL NOTE 3: CONVOLUTION OF MULTIPLICATION OF FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN OPERATIONAL RISK CAPITAL MODEL IN BASEL III/IV
TECHNICAL NOTE 4: PARETO CHARTS AND SENSITIVITY CHARTS
TECHNICAL NOTE 5: DISTRIBUTION CHARTS AND TABLES USING THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION TOOL
TECHNICAL NOTE 6: PERCENTILE DISTRIBUTIONAL FITTING TOOL
TECHNICAL NOTE 7: DYNAMIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT WITH COST AND SCHEDULE RISK
VISUAL GUIDES, SUMMARIES, TABLES, MODELS LIST, AND USEFUL ADDENDA
DISTRIBUTIONAL MOMENTS
CORRELATIONS
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
ANALYTICAL TOOLS
DISTRIBUTIONAL FITTING
RELATIONSHIP AMONG PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
RELATIONSHIP AMONG STATIC, DYNAMIC, AND STOCHASTIC METHODS
FORECASTING METHODS
DATA DIAGNOSTICS
OPTIMIZATION METHODS
STRATEGIC REAL OPTIONS
QUICK FACTS
OPTIONS THEORY
MODELING TOOLKIT APPLICATIONS
Analytics – Central Limit Theorem
Analytics – Central Limit Theorem – Winning Lottery Numbers
Analytics – Flaw of Averages
Analytics – Mathematical Integration Approximation Model
Analytics – Projectile Motion
Analytics – Regression Diagnostics
Analytics – Ships in the Night
Analytics – Statistical Analysis
Analytics – Weighting of Ratios
Credit Analysis – Credit Premium
Credit Analysis – Credit Default Swaps and Credit Spread Options
Credit Analysis – Credit Risk Analysis and Effects on Prices
Credit Analysis – External Debt Ratings and Spread
Credit Analysis – Internal Credit Risk Rating Model
Credit Analysis – Profit-Cost Analysis of New Credit
Debt Analysis – Asset-Equity Parity Model
Debt Analysis – Cox Model on Price and Yield of Risky Debt with Mean-Reverting Rates
Debt Analysis – Debt Repayment and Amortization
Debt Analysis – Debt Sensitivity Models
Debt Analysis – Merton Price of Risky Debt with Stochastic Asset and Interest
Debt Analysis – Vasicek Debt Option Valuation
Debt Analysis – Vasicek Price and Yield of Risky Debt
Decision Analysis – Decision Tree Basics
Decision Analysis – Decision Tree with EVPI, Minimax, and Bayes’ Theorem
Decision Analysis – Economic Order Quantity and Inventory Reorder Point
Decision Analysis – Economic Order Quantity and Optimal Manufacturing
Decision Analysis – Expected Utility Analysis
Decision Analysis – Inventory Control
Decision Analysis – Queuing Models
Exotic Options – Accruals on Basket of Assets
Exotic Options – American, Bermudan, and European Options with Sensitivities
Exotic Options – American Call Option on Foreign Exchange
Exotic Options – American Call Option on Index Futures
Exotic Options – European Call Option with Dividends
Exotic Options – Asian Lookback Options Using Arithmetic Averages
Exotic Options – Asian Lookback Options Using Geometric Averages
Exotic Options – Asset or Nothing Options
Exotic Options – Barrier Options
Exotic Options – Binary Digital Options
Exotic Options – Cash or Nothing Options
Exotic Options – Chooser Option (Simple Chooser)
Exotic Options – Chooser Option (Complex Chooser)
Exotic Options – Commodity Options
Exotic Options – Currency (Foreign Exchange) Options
Exotic Options – Double Barrier Options
Exotic Options – European Call Option with Dividends
Exotic Options – Exchange Assets Option
Exotic Options – Extreme Spreads Option
Exotic Options – Foreign Equity-Linked Foreign Exchange Options in Domestic Currency
Exotic Options – Foreign Equity Struck in Domestic Currency
Exotic Options – Foreign Equity with Fixed Exchange Rate
Exotic Options – Foreign Takeover Options
Exotic Options – Forward Start Options
Exotic Options – Futures and Forward Options
Exotic Options – Gap Options
Exotic Options – Graduated Barrier Options
Exotic Options – Index Options
Exotic Options – Inverse Gamma Out-of-the-Money Options
Exotic Options – Jump-Diffusion Options
Exotic Options – Leptokurtic and Skewed Options
Exotic Options – Lookback with Fixed Strike (Partial Time)
Exotic Options – Lookback with Fixed Strike
Exotic Options – Lookback with Floating Strike (Partial Time)
Exotic Options – Lookback with Floating Strike
Exotic Options – Min and Max of Two Assets
Exotic Options – Options on Options
Exotic Options – Option Collar
Exotic Options – Perpetual Options
Exotic Options – Range Accruals (Fairway Options)
Exotic Options – Simple Chooser
Exotic Options – Spread on Futures
Exotic Options – Supershare Options
Exotic Options – Time Switch Options
Exotic Options – Trading-Day Corrections
Exotic Options – Two-Asset Barrier Options
Exotic Options – Two-Asset Cash or Nothing
Exotic Options – Two Correlated Assets Option
Exotic Options – Uneven Dividend Payments Option
Exotic Options – Writer Extendible Option
Forecasting – Data Diagnostics
Forecasting – Econometric, Correlations, and Multiple Regression Modeling
Forecasting – Exponential J-Growth Curves
Forecasting – Forecasting Manual Computations
Forecasting – Linear Interpolation and Nonlinear Spline Extrapolation
Forecasting – Logistic S-Growth Curves
Forecasting – Markov Chains and Market Share
Forecasting – Multiple Regression
Forecasting – Nonlinear Extrapolation and Forecasting
Forecasting – Stochastic Processes, Brownian Motion, Forecast Distribution at Horizon, Jump-Diffusion, and Mean-Reversion
Forecasting – Time-Series ARIMA
Forecasting – Time-Series Analysis
Industry Application – Banking – Integrated Risk Management, Probability of Default, Economic Capital, Value at Risk, and Optimal Bank Portfolios
Operational Risk – Queuing Models at Bank Branches
Optimization – Continuous Portfolio Allocation
Optimization – Discrete Project Selection
Optimization – Inventory Optimization
Optimization – Investment Portfolio Allocation
Optimization – Investment Capital Allocation I (Basic Model)
Optimization – Investment Capital Allocation II (Advanced Model)
Optimization – Military Portfolio and Efficient Frontier
Optimization – Optimal Pricing with Elasticity
Optimization – Optimization of a Harvest Model
Optimization – Optimizing Ordinary Least Squares
Optimization – Stochastic Portfolio Allocation
Options Analysis – Binary Digital Instruments
Options Analysis – Options Trading Strategies
Options Analysis – Options-Adjusted Spreads Lattice
Options Analysis – Options on Debt
Options Analysis – Five Plain Vanilla Options
Personal Finance Models
Probability of Default – Bond Yields and Spreads (Market Comparable Approach)
Probability of Default – Empirical Model
Probability of Default – External Options Model (Public Company)
Probability of Default – Merton Internal Options Model (Private Company)
Project Management – Cost Estimation Model
Probability of Default – Merton Market Options Model (Industry Comparable)
Project Management – Critical Path Analysis (CPM PERT GANTT)
Project Management – Project Timing
Real Estate – Commercial Real Estate ROI
Risk Analysis – Integrated Risk Management
Risk Analysis – Interest Rate Risk
Risk Analysis – Portfolio Risk and Return Profiles
Risk Hedging – Delta-Gamma Hedging
Risk Hedging – Delta Hedging
Risk Hedging – Effects of Fixed versus Floating Rates
Risk Hedging – Foreign Exchange Cash Flow Model
Risk Hedging – Hedging
Sensitivity – Greeks
Sensitivity – Tornado and Linear Sensitivity Charts
Simulation – Basic Simulation Model
Simulation – Best Surgical Team
Simulation – Correlated Simulation
Simulation – Correlation Effects on Risk
Simulation – Custom Simulation Equations
Simulation – Data Fitting
Simulation – Debt Repayment and Amortization
Simulation – Demand Curve and Elasticity Estimation
Simulation – Discounted Cash Flow, Return on Investment, and Volatility Estimates
Simulation – Infectious Diseases
Simulation – Recruitment Budget (Negative Binomial and Multidimensional Simulation)
Simulation – Retirement Funding with VBA Macros
Simulation – Roulette Wheel
Simulation – Time Value of Money
Six Sigma – Obtaining Statistical Probabilities, Basic Hypothesis Tests, Confidence Intervals, and Bootstrapping Statistics
Six Sigma – Sample Size Determination and Design of Experiments
Six Sigma – Statistical and Unit Capability Measures, Specification Levels, and Control Charts
Valuation – Buy versus Lease
Valuation – Classified Loan Borrowing Base
Valuation – Break-Even Inventory: Seasonal Lending Trial Balance Analysis
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